Election Risk Outlook — At a Glance

Integrated view of process integrity, protest dynamics, northern spillover, and donor conditionality for Benin’s April 2026 election. Probabilities reflect a 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo calibrated to governance, fragility, macro baselines, and our internal assessments.

0.523
≥2 Disqualifications
Qualification window
0.271
≥5 Protests (4 wks)
Early campaign window
0.427
≥3 Incidents (North)
Alibori/Borgou, 3 months
0.251
Donor Delay >30d
Disbursements/conditionality

Risk Matrix — Likelihood × Impact

Points are placed on 1–5 axes (likelihood & impact) with 0.5-step gridlines and labels at whole numbers. Focus areas: institutional tilt, disqualifications, denial days, and northern insecurity.

Outlook — Next 3–6 Months

  • Process risk elevated: institutional tilt likely; permit frictions persist.
  • Protest clusters moderate: larger clusters conditional on denials + local price shocks.
  • North spillover: localized threat along Sahel frontier; monitor Alibori/Borgou.
  • Donor conditions: governance-linked delays possible; add compliance clauses.

Process & Governance

Institutional Tilt & Disqualifications

Sponsorship thresholds, tax-clearance steps, and appeals workflows create a tilted field. The model estimates a ~52% probability of ≥2 opposition disqualifications and ~16% chance of platform downtime ≥2 days during submission week.

Coalition Dynamics

Wadagni’s reliance on the incumbent machinery raises medium-term risks of intra-elite friction after the vote. Keep a live map of veto players and potential defections.

Stability & Protests

Exceedance Curve — Protests (4 weeks)

~55% for ≥4; ~27% for ≥5; ~23% for ≥7 protests — larger clusters are less likely but still actionable.

Drivers — Tornado Sensitivity

Biggest drivers: protest counts → injuries (0.85), denial probability → protests (0.52).

Decision Triggers

  • Process: P(≥2 disqualifications) > 0.60 → escalate observers & transparency asks.
  • Stability: P(≥5 protests/4 wks) > 0.40 or denial days ≥5 → activate assembly-management & protective comms.

Security & Spillover (North)

Frontier Focus: Alibori & Borgou

Probability of ≥3 incidents in 3 months: ~0.427. Maintain corridor security posture and ECOWAS coordination.

Market/Donor Signals

  • Donor delay >30 days: ~0.251
  • |Weekly FX| >3% (peak weeks): ~0.040
  • Add governance clauses; stagger disbursement milestones.

Monte Carlo Outputs (50,000 runs)

Risk outcome (horizon) Probability
≥2 opposition disqualifications (qualification window)0.523
Platform downtime ≥2 days (submission week)0.158
Appeal backlog >30 days0.229
≥5 protests (4 weeks)0.271
Rally denial days ≥5 (4 weeks)0.648
Total injuries ≥50 (4 weeks)0.034
CPI (Inflation) shock ≥2%/mo (3 months)0.003
Unemployment shock ≥1pp (Q1–Q2 2026)0.022
≥3 security incidents (Alibori/Borgou, 3 months)0.427
Donor disbursement delay >30 days0.251
|Weekly FX move| >3% (peak weeks)0.040

How to Use

  • Link probabilities to decision triggers (observers, comms, corridor posture, financing clauses).
  • Refresh weekly with live indicators (CENA telemetry, permits, market food prices, subnational incidents).

Caveats

  • Model quantifies process/stability/spillover/market risks — not “who wins.”
  • Heavier tails are ready for local food-price shocks and informality-driven labor stress if new data arrives.

References